NordenBladet – While President Trump has repeatedly criticized NATO and suggested that the U.S. might leave the alliance, the likelihood of such a move actually materializing remains low. There are several key reasons for this:
- If the U.S. were to leave NATO, its global influence would significantly diminish.
- In 2023, the U.S. Congress passed a law prohibiting the president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO without two-thirds Senate approval or an act of Congress.
- The U.S. military and intelligence community strongly support NATO, as the alliance bolsters America’s global standing and acts as a deterrent against Russia and China.
- Polls indicate that a majority of Americans support NATO membership.
The Consequences of a U.S. Withdrawal from NATO
1. The Decline of U.S. Geopolitical Influence
NATO serves as a primary platform for the U.S. to exercise its influence in global politics. Through NATO, Washington largely shapes Western security policies, impacts European military decisions, and maintains control over strategic partnerships. A U.S. departure from NATO would create an opportunity for Europe to become more independent and, if desired, shift its focus towards other geopolitical power centers such as China.
2. Diminished U.S. Authority on the Global Stage
If the U.S. were no longer part of NATO, its voice in Western collective defense matters would be significantly weakened. European countries, which have historically relied on Washington’s leadership, would make more independent security decisions. Nations like France and Germany might pursue their own defense cooperation, leading to a decline in the U.S.’s relevance in global security and eroding its role as the “world’s policeman.”
3. Damage to Trump’s Reputation Domestically and Internationally
- In Europe: A U.S. withdrawal from NATO could be perceived as a betrayal, particularly among Eastern European nations such as Poland and the Baltic states, which rely on U.S. security guarantees. This could severely damage America’s soft power and credibility, as allies might no longer trust Washington’s commitments and agreements.
- In the U.S.: While some of Trump’s supporters, particularly those who favor isolationist policies, might applaud a NATO exit as an “America First” victory, most of the U.S. political and military establishment would strongly oppose it. The Senate has already passed legislation preventing a unilateral withdrawal, indicating that even within Trump’s party, the idea is unpopular.
4. Increased Economic and Military Vulnerability for the U.S.
Leaving NATO would not yield the financial benefits some of Trump’s supporters may expect. While the U.S. does contribute more to NATO than most member states, it also gains significant advantages:
- NATO maintains a U.S. military presence in Europe and ensures strategic alliances.
- U.S. defense companies benefit from NATO military contracts, arms deals, and infrastructure projects.
- NATO strengthens America’s global deterrence capabilities. If NATO were to weaken or dissolve, the U.S. would need to allocate additional resources to maintaining its influence in Asia and other regions.
Trump Would Be Undermining Both the U.S. and Himself
If the U.S. were to leave NATO, the consequences would include:
- A dramatic decline in Washington’s global security influence.
- Greater independence for NATO allies, which could threaten America’s long-term global dominance.
- Damage to Trump’s legacy, as he would be remembered as the president who weakened America’s position rather than strengthening it.
- Increased geopolitical uncertainty, potentially benefiting Russia and China.
Why Does Trump Use NATO Withdrawal Rhetoric?
Neither President Trump nor his advisors are naïve, and his NATO-related threats should not be dismissed as mere impulsive statements. Instead, this rhetoric serves a strategic purpose and has significant implications.
1. Electoral Strategy and Mobilizing His Base
- Trump’s political brand is deeply tied to the “America First” doctrine, which prioritizes reducing foreign expenditures and focusing on domestic issues.
- Many of his supporters—especially conservative and nationalist-leaning Americans—believe that the U.S. spends disproportionately on NATO while European nations contribute too little.
- Criticizing NATO helps reinforce Trump’s image as a political outsider who is willing to challenge the status quo and protect American taxpayers.
2. Pressuring Europe to Increase Defense Spending
- Threatening to leave NATO may be a negotiation tactic aimed at pushing European nations to allocate more funds to their own defense.
- Trump has long accused NATO allies of “taking advantage of the U.S.” and has demanded that they meet their pledged defense spending target of 2% of GDP.
- Historically, this pressure has worked—many European nations, including Germany and France, have increased their defense budgets in response to Trump’s demands.
3. Domestic Political Leverage – Pressuring Biden and the Democrats
- Criticizing NATO allows Trump to contrast himself with President Biden, whose foreign policy emphasizes strengthening alliances and supporting Ukraine.
- If Trump can convince voters that NATO is costly and inefficient, he could push moderate Democrats and Republicans to reassess their stance on international military commitments.
4. Trump’s Foreign Policy Approach: Less Globalism, More Deal-Making
- Trump is not a traditional geopolitician; instead, he views international relations as transactional, favoring bilateral deals over multilateral organizations.
- Threatening to withdraw from NATO could be a tactic to extract more favorable economic or trade agreements from Europe.
Could the U.S. Actually Leave NATO?
- The likelihood of Trump following through on his threats is low.
- Congress has passed a law that prevents the president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO without congressional approval.
- Many Republicans, particularly those who support strong transatlantic ties, would not allow Trump to make such a drastic move.
- The U.S. military and intelligence community are firmly in favor of maintaining NATO membership, as it enhances America’s global standing and deters adversaries like Russia and China.
Trump’s NATO Criticism: A Tactic, Not a Concrete Plan
- Trump uses NATO criticism to mobilize his voter base and pressure European allies.
- His goal is to push Europe to increase defense spending and reduce America’s financial burden within the alliance.
- While a full NATO exit is unlikely, Trump’s rhetoric could weaken alliance unity and credibility.
- The real risk may not be an outright U.S. departure from NATO, but rather a scenario in which Trump weakens NATO’s decision-making capacity and scales back U.S. involvement.
A U.S. withdrawal from NATO would have profound consequences for both Trump’s legacy and America’s global standing. In short, while Trump may use NATO withdrawal as a rhetorical tool, actually leaving the alliance would be nothing short of a strategic catastrophe for the United States.
Cover Photo: NordenBladet Editor-in-Chief Helena-Reet Aari (NordenBladet)
Source: NordenBladet.ee: Helena-Reet: NATO-st lahkumine oleks USA jaoks strateegiline katastroof