Cyclical peak in construction passing

NordenBladet — Construction will grow between one and three per cent this year. Construction volume will decrease next year, estimates the RAKSU construction trends group’s report published on 3 February.The record-high pace of housing construction in 2021 has slowed, overshadowed by increased global uncertainty and the potential rise in interest rates. The construction of privately financed and state-supported rental housing will continue at a rapid pace this year. Capital is still expected to flow into housing investments, but the pace of investment is estimated to gradually slow. The construction of single-family houses has clearly increased in recent years, and this trend is expected to continue. The demand for construction is being supported by a favourable employment trend, and the increase in remote work has sparked new interest in residential options outside city centres.  Large companies are planning significant investments this year, but global uncertainty could slow this pace. The rate at which building permits for industrial buildings and warehouses have been granted has risen. There is also demand for new premises, despite there being a high level of vacancy in old premises. Hospital construction is slowing. Fewer new schools are being built than last year. The prices of construction materials have risen sharply, and it seems unlikely that pressures on prices will decrease over the short term. There is also a shortage of skilled labour. However, the number of people working in the construction sector is expected to increase during the first half of the year. The RAKSU construction trends group forecasts that the volume of construction will increase 1–3% this year. Next year, construction is expected to decrease by 1–3%. Renovations are expected to grow at a steady 2% rate over the next few years. Civil engineering will grow a couple of per cent this year and decrease slightly next year. The report and forecast of the RAKSU construction trends group were prepared before Russia attacked Ukraine, and the forecast does not include estimates on the potential impacts that the attack may have on the construction sector. However, the risk that development will be weaker than forecast is significant.